近日，华中农业大学经济管理学院唐川副教授及其合作者在能源输送管道事故与房地产价值影响方向的研究取得重要进展，在国际资源与环境经济学领域顶级刊物Journal of Environmental Economics and Management发表题为“Pipeline Incidents and Property Values”的学术论文。研究揭示了内陆页岩油气扩张开采期间，输油管道运输事故对周边房地产价值的负面影响，这为新型能源的发展与建设管理提供了重要理论依据。

近年来，页岩油气开采发展迅速，输油管道的快速扩张引发了社会对管道事故及其经济影响的关注。唐川副教授及其合作者针对2010年至2020年间美国境内发生的426起管道事故，对事故周边周边房地产价值的影响进行了探讨和科学量化。研究发现，只有涉及爆炸、点燃或人员伤亡，并且发生在地上管道的严重事故，才会对附近的房地产价格产生负面影响。而其他类型的事故则没有明显的房价影响。计量分析结果显示，高知名度事故会造成事故周边1000米范围内的房产价值显著下降，且影响可持续长达八年。事故发生后，房地产交易量会在短期内显著下降，表明需求侧在事故初期对风险的强烈反应。相比之下，管道安装并不会对房地产价格产生显著影响。该研究较为系统性地评估了管道事故对房地产市场的短、长期影响，弥补了该领域早期研究的不足。

这项研究得到了华中农业大学自主科技创新基金的资助。论文作者还包括北京石油大学讲师程聂嫣、美国墨西哥州立大学副教授李明昊、美国罗德岛大学副教授刘鹏飞、中国社科院农村发展研究所助理研究员罗千峰和康奈尔大学助理教授张文栋。华中农业大学唐川副教授为论文的唯一通讯作者。

【英文摘要】

The rapid expansion of pipelines during the U.S. shale oil and gas boom drew attention to the economic consequences of pipeline incidents. This study investigates the impacts of 426 gas distribution pipeline incidents on property values in the United States between 2010 and 2020. We find that only incidents that are both severe (involving explosion, ignition, or fatalities) and occurred on above-ground pipelines, which we define as high-profile incidents, have adverse effects on nearby property values, while other incidents have no measurable housing price effect. A difference-in-differences analysis finds that high-profile incidents significantly decrease property values within 1,000 meters by 8.2%, and the negative impact can persist for about eight years on average. Furthermore, we find a drop in transaction volume that lasts a short period after the incidents, suggesting an initial demand-side response. In contrast to the strong effects of pipeline incidents, we do not find statistically significant price effects from pipeline installation. We also demonstrate that there is substantial heterogeneity by the type of incident and that results based on studies of individual incidents should be generalized with caution.

论文链接：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069624001153